China Lies About Its Rapid Nuclear Weapons Expansion

The U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) was not fooled or amused.
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is hiding the full extent of its nuclear arsenal expansion, according to the report, while refusing to engage in nuclear arms control agreements and becoming increasingly secretive. Beijing “reduced transparency in its nuclear program as its capabilities are increasing,” the DIA noted in the report, released on Oct. 23.
Beijing claims that other countries should voluntarily limit their nuclear weapons development and strategic doctrine, while secretly developing its own. The PLA already has conventional military advantages over most countries in the world. If the latter forgo nuclear weapons, the PLA will only extend its advantages in the nuclear sphere. This could make any non-nuclear country in the world almost defenseless against the PLA.
The regime in Russia is transferring nuclear weapons doctrine and capabilities to China, including missile tracking and hair-trigger capabilities, so that China can “launch-on-warning” rather than wait for a first strike to hit, according to the DIA report. This opens up the possibility of an accidental nuclear war being started due to a mistake by a Chinese missile tracker.
Since at least 2015, the CCP has hidden its total production of nuclear weapons fuel, and in 2017, it stopped reporting its plutonium stockpile to the International Atomic Energy Agency. While the United States, UK, and France follow a “zero-yield” policy that limits nuclear weapons tests to computer simulations, the PLA’s nuclear testing program lacks transparency and is probably preparing to operate a physical nuclear test site at Lop Nur year-round. Such testing would likely cause radioactive materials to be released into the atmosphere.
As noted by the DIA, “Beijing’s pursuit of enhanced nuclear deterrence over the next decade probably will increase leadership confidence—and the risk of miscalculation—as the PLA makes gradual improvements in its ability to signal and counter the U.S.” This overconfidence from a strengthened nuclear backstop is likely contributing to Xi’s willingness to push China’s boundaries, not only in Taiwan and the South China Sea against non-nuclear powers, but also against what he sees as the weakness of even nuclear-armed democracies like the United States and India.
Xi’s offensive territorial operations and lack of a mature nuclear doctrine spell trouble for free countries everywhere. According to the DIA, the PLA’s nuclear immaturity “may introduce a period during the next several years of escalatory risks” that “blur conventional and nuclear boundaries.”
A future in which the CCP feels comfortable claiming a U.S. island near Alaska or Hawaii is conceivable, as is the PLA making a veiled nuclear threat to try to force an American retreat anywhere in the world. So watch out for more bold and unwelcome moves from the CCP. And redouble efforts to ensure tomorrow’s peace through strengthening today’s deterrence.